Tinubu, PDP and the Road to 2019 - by Dele Momodu | Welcome to Linda Ikeji's Blog

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Saturday, 20 August 2016

Tinubu, PDP and the Road to 2019 - by Dele Momodu

Read his piece below...
Fellow Nigerians, you must be wondering what this title is all about. Please, calm down, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, one of Nigeria’s iconic politicians, is not about to dump his party, APC, for PDP, the party he fought hard with others to sack from power just last year.
The reason for bringing PDP into this article which largely concerns the Tinubu conundrum is very simple and straight-forward. PDP has suffered calamities upon catastrophes since General Muhammadu Buhari sacked President Goodluck Jonathan from office. It is hard to imagine, or believe, that a party that held Nigeria by the jugular for 16 solid years could attain meltdown so soon and almost disappear into oblivion.

One would have expected PDP, despite its electoral misfortune, to provide a formidable opposition to APC and keep President Buhari on his toes but that has not been the case. APC has wasted no time in sending PDP to an early grave by throwing poisonous darts at it from every angle.

The war against corruption has been a most veritable weapon with stupendous impact used by APC to scatter most of the PDP apparatchik to the winds. The strategy was to weaken them by showcasing the humongous corruption that was perpetrated and perpetuated during their reign. The PDP brand was thus obliterated in a jiffy. Many of their bigwigs confessed to nefarious and horrendous crimes of looting and brigandage. They coughed up or vomited incredible sums of cash.

All entreaties and shouts of a vengeful witch-hunt against President Buhari fell on deaf ears. The more they screamed the more they were horse-whipped into submission and made to weep bitterly.
As if that was not bad enough, PDP engaged itself in a war of attrition and became a house divided against itself. It was only a matter of time before it crumbled like the proverbial cookie does. Today, PDP has become its own worst enemy with the brickbats being thrown at one another by members of what used to be touted as the biggest political party in Africa. How are the mighty fallen!

The aim of my piece this week is to attempt what I did in 2014 when I wrote a permutative article titled ‘In Search of Mathematicians’. That was how I predicted a win for Buhari when many pundits still doubted such possibility. I intend to do so again in this column by painting a picture of what to expect in 2019. If you think that year is still far away, perish the thought.

The battle for the next Nigerian Presidential election started as soon as the last one was lost and won. The hurly-burly of the elections had not yet settled down when the potential gladiators picked up their gauntlets in readiness for the next combat.

The ruling party APC has suffered its own casualties as a result of its self-immolating wars of anticipation. What do I mean? The new men of power are already thinking ahead and wondering who may be too ambitious within their own fold. Any of such recalcitrant and ambitious rebels must be cut down to size, no matter his or her contribution to past victory and glory. Without mincing words, the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, is the first victim and he has suffered massive collateral damage on account of suspicion. APC itself has suffered almost fatally in the process. The only thing holding it together for now is the fact that it is the party in power and thus presumably has limitless opportunities to distribute largesse to the army of party operatives and their cronies.

By this time next year, as this government enters its third year in power, reality would begin to set in and President Buhari will begin to discover and see original animals in human skin.
I foresee and predict a re-alignment of political forces from 2017. President Buhari will be encouraged and persuaded to run a second term by those who are currently profiting from his government. It is only normal and it is their legitimate right. Nothing stops the President from seeking a re-election within our Constitution. The only snag is that many politicians are going to gang up against him because they see him as an outsider in politics who has benefitted from their massive support but in return has been messing things up for them.

If the President remains stoically stubborn and refuses to play ball with politicians, he would have to fight dirty to win his ticket. It seems to me that he would have to do everything to retain the loyalty of one man by all means, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is almost impossible for any candidate to become President of Nigeria without the overwhelming support of the Yoruba and their current generalissimo, Tinubu, in particular.

Tinubu derives his stranglehold on power from his iron grip on Lagos. Lagos is a microcosm of Nigeria. Whoever controls Lagos owns the commercial nerve-centre of Nigeria, just like the California of America. Tinubu has been very lucky in that his anointed candidates, Babatunde Raji Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode, have been very cerebrally successful. The current Governor of Lagos State, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode, is already set, after just one year in office, to surpass all expectations.

According to impeccable sources, Buhari may therefore be forced to risk and pick Tinubu as his running-mate if push comes to shove. Tinubu’s protégé, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, is the current Vice President, who comes with intimidating credentials but may not have enough political muscle to deliver enough votes to the kitty. The dilemma for Buhari is whether he should buck the trend set by his predecessors, starting from Shehu Shagari, and jettison his Vice President, especially when a cordial and mutually respectful relationship exists between them. In addition, Osinbajo has been doing exceedingly well and he is seen as one of the few shining lights of this Administration.

There is also the fact that Prof Osinbajo is a highly regarded and esteemed senior Christian figure and the President has needed him to silence those detractors that consider him an Islamic fundamentalist.
However, I believe that the controversy that could ensue from a potentially volatile Muslim/Muslim ticket may have been fixed substantially. Firstly, there is a precedent set by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola the acclaimed winner of the 1993 elections who picked a fellow Muslim, Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe, as his running-mate and still won in Nigeria’s freest and fairest election to date. Secondly, though Tinubu is a devout Muslim, his beloved wife is a hard-core Christian and a top-notch member of the same Redeemed Christian Church of God as the Vice President. Thirdly, there is the fact that Tinubu supported a Christian, Akinwunmi Ambode, as his anointed candidate for Governor of Lagos State, a deft move calculated to pacify those who may wish to foment religious crisis and conflagration then and in the future.

Tinubu is believed by many to have served Nigeria meritoriously and selflessly by suppressing his own personal ambition for that of others and it is believed that the kingmaker deserves a chunky reward the next time around if he so desires. He is acknowledged as being one of the most knowledgeable leaders in Nigeria today and a lot of people feel that his background in business and politics could bail Nigeria out of the economic quagmire of the moment. He is known to be a practical politician who knows how to make the world better for most people.

If the hawks succeed in getting Buhari to snub Tinubu because of his perceived threat to the President himself, the APC may split like PDP did before the collapse of the Jonathan Presidency.
One potential candidate is hovering in the wings and that is the Turaki of Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who has never hidden the fact that he wants the Presidency by all means. My next permutation is that the former Vice President and Tinubu who are two of the three most powerful and influential politicians in APC today (the third is Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki with his firm control of the Senate) may combine forces to thwart a Buhari re-election bid. They have been old allies since the time of Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua. If they join forces, it may therefore spell doom for those seeking the re-election of President Buhari.

After the seeming lull in the Buhari-Tinubu love, it seems the recent appointments given to some of Tinubu’s acolytes appear designed to assuage his feeling. But would this be sufficient to bury the combustive ambition of a man who believes he still has so much to give to his country?
The third option which also involves Tinubu in the mix is one on which for a variety of reasons Buhari chooses not to run again. Without doubt, there are several other forces contending for power in case Buhari decides not to seek re-election. In this category, Tinubu’s name still features prominently. No one can deny the ability of Tinubu to transform Nigeria the way he did in Lagos. It is presumed that Buhari may generously want to pay Tinubu back for the support he gave him. He may also want to leave a lasting legacy and shed the toga of an ethnic jingoist by handing over to a Southerner. If this happens, I foresee the visionary Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, a core Buhari loyalist, becoming Tinubu’s running-mate, notwithstanding that this is another Muslim/Muslim ticket. Many APC loyalists believe this combination may fly.

There is a fourth option and this is coming from the direction of PDP. The theory here is that PDP can still spring a surprise on Buhari and pay him back in his own coin. The PDP apologists believe the North has lost more under Buhari despite allocating many political appointments to the region. They are of the opinion that former President Jonathan did more for them and gave them access and respect than their own man Buhari who they accuse of being standoffish. This is the reason that many Northerners, apart from his kinsmen in the South South, have become the biggest promoter of PDP.
In case you think Jonathan is dead and buried politically, perish the thought! He still holds the biggest ace in PDP. In fact, many in PDP today see him as their best candidate in 2019 because some of his transformation agenda are beginning to come to fruition. They are hoping and banking on Buhari becoming so unpopular that Jonathan would be sorely missed by Nigerians who would practically beg him to come back.

The rising profile and the promotion of Jonathan in the international community is part of that systematic way of re-polishing, repackaging, redefining and preparing him for a return to power. Every attempt to smear him with a tar brush would be rebuffed by his die-hard loyalists who see Buhari as someone trying to kill any future role for Jonathan as Nigerian President. They are totally committed to ensuring that Jonathan is well protected between now and next year when serious politicking would have reached a crescendo again. The hope is that as a former civilian President, he can bounce back to power like President Mathieu Kerekou did in Benin Republic, when he returned in 1996 after quitting in 1991.

Who knows tomorrow?

75 comments:

vinna saviour said...

It's well mbok

ike manuel said...

Long story, little sense

Na me talk am!

Long Live Lib!!!

livingstone chibuike said...

Nonsense article. APC is a nightmare

Point And Kill said...

Visit emilogist.com

beluGod Nweke said...

This piece clearly shows that no one is tipping an igbo man for d post of either president or vice president....we ave been totally ruled out

Adalud said...

May that day come and may we live to witness! Pro Jona till daikingdom!

NaijaDeltaBabe said...

Too tired to read


...merited happiness

okechukwu nnoduechi said...

GOOD TO SEE








AUNTY LINDA 👩

Barrister Agamaekwe said...

Dis Dele truly truly no get sense...dats why Davido call am him boy!!!

Barrister Agamaekwe said...

Dele u neva still get sense dats why Davido call u him boy!!!

Barrister Agamaekwe said...

Dele u dey find favour...shut up and continue ur job as Davido's boy. Nama!!!

Anonymous said...

Hum
LWKM. Laugh at Nigeria's funniest pictures here

Anonymous said...

Enter your comment...dis is nonesense writen word,dat does not bring sense to we d nigeria,political rubbish

Uju Phil said...

No need for fuss really, you think Nigerians are fools, right? Well hard experience has taught the gullible ones a lesson they'll never forget in their lifetime.

carloswilliams said...

Dele the attention seeker we don hear .This is the reason why Davido called u his boy. Now we all knw that Davido is right after all.

Anonymous said...

Read
Dis a balance write up...Dele wo ar u supportin pdp or apc?pdp is comin back

dennis oshea said...

Dele Momodu is a fine journalist who knows his onus, and I hunk this article is not bias in anyway, u see the possibilities he is putting forward and his permutations are on point; but my question still goes thus: will Nigerian politicians put the people first before their selfish selves?... If that answer is NO...then this stupid and idiotic ancient democratic cycle will continue. God bless Nigeria

Jamila Shaibu said...

Hmmmmmmmm ojkk

Juliet Iwuno said...

Too na Saturday mbok! Linda take note!

Ike Louisa said...

Too long a story. APC or PDP am watching.

Eleojo Blessing said...

Story

Segun Adegoke said...

U can not rule out anything in Nigerian politicking. The article made sense,if u really understand the political game in Nigeria and also read it with an open mind.

DONIKONXOPCHARLESCHEKWUBECHUKWU OKELEKE said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
babatunde g. said...

Only god know tomorrow . What of gov rochas okorocha or igbo dont have any chance of becoming president come 2019.

Joyous babe,Linda ikeji first cousin said...

What is this big big saying?

Charles Misheal said...

We miss GEJ

SIMPLYCOCK said...

Speculationsssss.....

In any case I want GEJ back to give us a restructured Nigeria...PERIOD!

He was on the verge of doing it when the dog Buhari cut him short!!!!!

Onwubuali Thankgod said...

I guess so.
Visit hisprideblog.blogspot.com

Emy said...

Dele don dey get sense small small. E b like say him don dey align with pdp for SW. Bcos i no say some of the SW pple get sense and they knw the truth. People like OBJ, FFK,RA,just to mention a few.
Anyways Nigerians are more enlightened now than before, it seems we now no what is expected from our politicians not leaders.We want leaders not politicians.

HRM paul said...

U guys ruled urself out with ur bickering and sellout amongst each oda and d mal administration of GEJ who is next to an Igbo man.sorry dude nothing for una yet

HRM paul said...

Wen people say dis is a based write up I agree not only is it biased it is self seeking.He is sucking up to ashiwaju

ib naija ooo said...

Very interesting and thought provoking.

Ogbewe Godfrey said...

Jonathan for life.

Chris Nneji said...

The fifth permutation is that if the persecution of Saraki persists, he and Atiku may decamp to PDP where Atiku will become the presidential candidate.
The sixth permutation is a Sule Lamido PDP presidential candidate winning the election should PMB fall out with Obj.
Peter Obi is already the annoited PDP VP candidate in 2019.

Anonymous said...

Dele momodu is not only a big fool but also a demon! Forget everything he wrote in this stupid article his main aim here is to get into tinubus good books and also throw spanners in jonathans wheel by urging this failed APC govt to attack president Jonathan even more. Stupid Fat Mofo he is. The desperate pig is also angry that he hasn't smelt an appointment under buhari's govt. It is a badly kept secret that he was pushing buttons to made a minister for culture and tourism. He is jst suffering from mumuism.

Sunkanmi Shogbesan said...

Mummu people full dis blog, very lazy readers. WTS too long in dis article, all de wanna read and comment about is sex nd egg plants..

HypesTV.com said...

Pdp ti take over.
Download 2Baba – Serious Tinz
http://hypestv.com/2baba-serious-tinz/

Yemi Daniels said...

PR for tinubu straight up but there is God in heaven who superintends over the affairs of Men

moha2001 said...

Mr dele,I always respect Ur opinion on issues but on dis one I wandered why you left kwankwaso out.for the record today in the north,apart from Mr president there is nobody like kwankwaso.

Energy said...

I don't see Jonathan emerging as candidate for presidency or even standing strongly for anyone else to put up a good run against APC. He maybe building international recognitions round the globe, but that's for his personal CV, not for PDP or its presidential candidacy. PDP lingering crisis is so primary, it shows that there is no willing to stand as father figure to douse heat in their issues and settle both camps. If someone like Jonathan who was the last big figure PDP projected has no opinion on who and how the party leadership should be (which is overdue by now), what structure will be in place to prepare him for presidency. This is Nigeria.

Anonymous said...

GEJ

moha2001 said...

Mr dele,I always respect Ur opinion on issues but on dis one I wandered why you left kwankwaso out.for the record today in the north,apart from Mr president there is nobody like kwankwaso.

peter ibeanu ibeanu said...

Enter your comment...Na WAA oo

lilian aniebue said...

These article makes sense , every thing he said about APC using corruption as an excuse to hunt and scatter pdp their main rival in the next election is the Truth, though i dont support the part that Tunbu have don alot or will do alot for Nigeria, and yes there is one or two chance that one of the things he wrote might happen in the next election. But my option is dis, APC was created by formal pdp members, so they r all the same pple, the same circle, and as long as these two parties are the only ones dragging the political power in Nigeria, nothing will ever change and in the next 20 years we will still be a developing country, if not worst, God help Nigeria

Wiz-Kamal said...

Nice piece been put gathered and together

chinelo okafor said...

I Didn't even bother reading it! What Good Will Come out From “dele mumummadu" davido's boy for that matter... Mtcheeeeeewwwwwww

Igor said...

Why not expressly tell us that you are campaigning for Tinubu to become the next president of Nigeria? All these talk about GEJ is a mere distraction so that you do not give away the posturing of your godfather so soon? With the way APC Is going, they will not only rig but kill half of Nigerians to win the 2019 general elections.

turu christiana said...

first timer

Anonymous said...

Dis write up is highlysectional if u don't have the ibos in the 2019 presidency then allow us go and form. Biafra simple and short.

Anon said...

"Osinbajo is doing extremely well"???...none sense write up....#wemissGEJ

@bolddy said...

Good luck Jonathan is now justified, You have to become a president before you know what it takes to govern BUHARI will bear me witness.

Anonymous said...

Jonathan should forget about running for any president at all cos in this present Nigeria there are people who feel all animals are equal but so are more equal than other we really need to go out separate ways, my opinion thou

Anonymous said...

Make them go kill themselves we in Niger delta will not be a part of their sick country

Anonymous said...

Double sided article ended with GEJ to stir the hate and bitterness from his kinsmen just becomes he is a south-southern, leave the gentle made out of yourdiplkmatic write up He has nothing to do with this government focus on telling your president how to make your president how he can repair this broken state you call Nigeria..

Anonymous said...

People should stop living in denial, ask yourself by 2019 will there be A NIGERIA?

Anonymous said...

Don't mind them they claim the Yorubs are the most brilliant but in their suppose intelligence they are too ignorant to know jona is a south-south and an ijaw man while igbos are south east, pity, especially the educated ones among them

Anonymous said...

The write up make sense a lot but I would love to ask this straight question from so called apc's coz if they had done well no need for them to worry comes 2019?

OSINANL said...

Dele momodu no be by force to go Dubai...
Stupid man keep licking thiefnubu's ass

OSINANL said...

Dele momodu no be by force to go Dubai...
Stupid man keep licking thiefnubu's ass

Fibiyisola Mustafa said...

Well analysed Mr. Dele Momodu. I missed GEJ as a person. His transformation agenda addresses grass roots & that is where to rule from. If GEJ picks a ticket, he has my vote!

Anonymous said...

Mind you Nigeria is back to military rulle what l am seen in Nigeria is not democracy. Anike

Oluchi Cynthia said...

Dele momodu pls grab d closest chair near U,I did'nt bother reading Ur writeup tru,I stopped wia U said Buhari sacked GEJ from office,Oga pls wot is the Dictionary meaning of "SACK"? Old men go just dey begin dey Zuzu....biko gerrarahia with immediate effect.

Anonymous said...

First timer.... I love dis write up but dere are more outcomes from the permutation dat d write up didnt cover.... I see APC doing lots of cosmetic projects next year bcoz of fear of losing out....

Nod said...

Trying very hard to market Tinubu and as well test the ground for his emergence. Based on the thesis that Yorubas are fools and would follow Tinubu to wherever he goes! God dey.

Nod said...

Igor got it.

Anonymous said...

Tinuba placed a blind bet on buhari pretending to be a visionary leader. Buhari without a doubt has failed big time and so has tinubu's reputation for leading the country along this unfortunate path.
In 2019 God alone will matter for it is in suffering that people seek and find the face of God.
H

Ekenny said...

Mr Momodu how many copies of Ovation did Tinubu bought upfront to warrant this type of image laundering and the wonderful kite you are flying. I still remember how you preferred a NEPA certified president to a Phd holder and how this got us into a one-chance bus. Please talk more on the achievement of this government you helped foister on the hapless citizens. In my view your positing on 2019 is unnecessary and lacks credibility

Okpara Chinweuba S Nex said...

The Economy of Lagos is being held by IGBOs. Why the economy in Nigeria is what it is today is because IGBOs have been sidelined. It's only the unwise that doesn't know that these perculiar People called IGBOs are blessed and creative. They are economy boosters. Look around you. Every where they go they creat opportunity, everywhere they are they pRosper. Take them out your plans and economy, and it will keep plunging.
You think you are doing them evil with this conspiracy? No. You are sinking your economy.
A word is enough for the wise.

Anonymous said...

Dele you fall my hand for this one. Can't believe you couldn't hide your affection for Thiefnubu, who you acknowledge is holding Lagos by the jugular. Hasn't it dawned on us that we need real change? After the fake change which Thiefnubu & APC brought, you mean you dream continuity for APC? Please spare us that... Pray for the next alternative but certainly not in Thiefnubu, Buhari or those old men. At worst, we go with Saraki. He has it all over. And also appeals to the needy. We say NO to your proposal in all ramifications!

donduke said...

The beauty of analysis is that it presents reality in a most logical way though it might not be pleasantly presented but could lead to some possible conclusions.

Anonymous said...

Gbam u get am

Anonymous said...

If PDP can sort itself out of its current mess, all it needs is to get votes from the south-south and north central and it will be back in power- Buhari won only because voters in the north central threw their lot with him!

Yusuf Dimas said...

Asuations, insinuations... it is well with Naija!

Unknown said...

This is a good article but seems to favor just a another party and candidate in the future. But I dare to correct Dele momodu on the fact he wrote Lagos as being the nerve center and making comparisons with California. TOTALLY WRONG. America as a nation is so broad that if I must use his terms, the have many nerve centers such that every state aims to generate its own economic wealth and no particular state holds the key to securing the presidency as your article points out with California. Your article in my own opinion is another way for you to gain relevance and send out conspiracy theories about electing Bola Tinubu in 2019.

William Braylen said...

Those in the Nigerian passageways of force have no expressive arrangement for our kids. Solicit most from the chose officers what arranges they have for youngsters conceived a year ago who will in 4 years be relied upon to sign into essential training and they'll send for their delegates who may likely send for their subourdinates and the disguise move wakes up.
Canine Obie Award candidate?

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